From: Tyler's Articles

Tuesday was a good day for free agent left-hander Randy Wolf. As one of the top starting pitchers available in an extremely weak class, Wolf is looking at a nice pay day this offseason. After the Los Angeles Dodgers refused to offer arbitration to the veteran hurler, though, his value has only gone up.

Being a Type A free agent, Wolf would have cost any other team that signs him an early draft pick had the Dodgers offered arbitration. Since the franchise did not do so, however, he now no longer comes with any draft pick baggage, which works in his favor tremendously. Rather than foregoing the potential for cheap, team-controlled talent in addition to the financial investment it will take to sign Wolf, any interested suitors will get to protect their first-rounder. With the new-found emphasis and value placed on cheap talent, the opportunity cost of losing an early pick would have influenced a lot of team’s behavior when it came to Wolf, who was almost a lock to get an arbitration offer.

The question, then, is what was Los Angeles thinking? It is pretty obvious that finances are going to be an issue for the franchise in light of the current ownership predicament; the divorce battle between the McCourts has made for entertaining theater. The team organizational leadership can deny that the ensuing legal battle over family assets will not affect the budget for baseball operations decisions. Fearing an inability to pay the price over financial struggles for a one-year deal should Wolf have accepted the offer, however, is the only somewhat legitimate defense for this head-scratching news.

First of all, it is unlikely that Wolf would have accepted. Outside of John Lackey, the free agent pitching class leaves a lot to be desired. In his Top 50 free agent preview, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the left-hander as the fifth-best free agent overall and the best pitcher not named Lackey. Dierkes even projected that he would command a three-year, $30-M contract. Even if that is an optimistic prediction, there is no denying that he is one of the better arms in a thin class and will receive several lucrative offers.

Wolf truly picked the right time to become a free agent and will never be in such a nice position again. He turned out to be a great signing for the Dodgers after waiting nearly all winter before signing an incentive-laced contract, going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA, 122 ERA+ and 3.96 Fielding Independent Pitching in 214.1 innings pitched. The 32-year-old did not miss a lot of bats but avoided walks and kept the ball in the park, producing solid rates of 2.44 BB/9 and 1.01 HR/9. Overall, he managed 3.0 Wins Above Replacement, his highest total since he was a member of the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2002. Plus, thanks to his shiny ERA and wins total, the perception is that he was more effective than he actually was in reality. Combined that with the weak market out there, and it is no surprise that several teams have reportedly already expressed a strong interest.

The Dodgers should have understood how unlikely it was for Wolf to accept. While he may have netted more annual dollars in a one-year deal should he have won his case, his value was not going to get anywhere higher if he pitched for one season and became a free agent again next winter. Indeed, at his age, this is his best, and perhaps final, opportunity to be offered a multi-year contract. Thus, he would be foolish not to test the market. Regardless of how different the market has valued veterans in recent past, never again will he be a top three free agent pitcher. As I wrote about last week, the 2011 crop of free agent pitchers is going to be loaded, with potential names like Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Javier Vasquez and Brandon Webb having the chance to hit the market. Thus, even if Wolf brought an equally low ERA to the table next winter (doubtful), he would be a middle-tier pitcher who would fall considerably lower on Dierkes’ list, decreasing his market value. The window for him to cash in on his baseball talents will be closing in the neat future, and the time is now for him to set his grandkids’ grandkids up for life.

Thus, it was pretty safe that Wolf would reject. At the least, making an offer was worth the risk given how valuable the two picks would be, especially since Ned Colletti has traded away so much young talent, from Josh Bell to stud catching prospect Carlos Santana, depleting the farm system to help the major league club. Instead, Wolf skates into free agency as a lucky man. In fact, he should send each Frank and Jamie separate Christmas cards if the divorce/financial concerns are indeed what guided this. If this was a pure baseball decision, Ned Colletti deserves one for his incompetence, because having Wolf back for another go of it would not have been a bad thing at all. He is surely going to regress—his .257 batting average on balls in play is .33 points below his career average and his 77.3 % strand rate is unsustainable—and he could break down after throwing so many innings; he had not eclipsed the 200-inning mark since 2003. Even with a pessimistic projection, though, he still would have been worth his contract pretty easily, with minimal downside risk because of the short length of the contract. For a team that could have starting rotation issues and is allegedly looking for a “true ace,” a failure to offer arbitration due to the risk that a pretty good pitcher would come back over a potential raise that he would be worth is asinine.

The Chicago Cubs should have offered Rich Harden arbitration but did not. Considering that Harden could have netted a few prospects this summer, getting nothing for him now is a headscratcher. Compared to the Wolf news, though, it is hardly worth complaining about. I surely expected Los Angeles to decline on Orlando Hudson, who also was worth an offer but was benched in favor of an inferior second baseman. Wolf, though? That should have been a no-brainer.

Wolf had a rough offseason after the Houston Astros failed to deliver on their initial offer last winter. As the top lefty on the market with no draft pick baggage, though, it is good to be Randy Wolf right now. Good for him.

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